Climate control on fire risk and fire occurrence
Regional scale mapping of bioclimatic susceptibility to biomass burning and fire regimes is useful for understanding sustainability of environment and possible disturbance-vegetation-climate interactions. Using LSA SAF FRM product as a background, fire risk is characterized by using a new derived index FDI (Fire Danger Index), discretized in 5 classes of risk. Fire regime components of frequency and intensity in (June-August) 2016 and 2017 over Bulgaria are monitored by the LSA SAF Fire Radiative Power-Pixel Product (FRP, MWatt) giving information on the radiant heat output of detected fires measured by MSG satellite.
The patterns of Regional Forest-PFTs (Plant Functional Types) for southern part of Bulgaria is distinguished by regional coupled climate-vegetation equilibrium model developed at NIMH (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology). In 2016 the concordance between high FDI and high FRP for detected fires is higher than in 2017, especially at FFT2 (Forest Functional Type 2).
However, there is a significant difference in fire regimes at different bioclimates /FFTs (Forest Functional Types); although the higher fire radiative energy released at FFT2 than FFT3 (Forest Functional Types 2 and 3, respectively), there is not a corresponding difference in monthly averaged FDI over the different FFTs (similar FDI values in FFT2 and FFT3 in Aug 2016 and July 2017).
Therefore, in addition to fire weather indexes it calls for accounting the specific vegetation type related fuel moistening along the bioclimatic/ FFTs gradient.