Fire Risk Map version 2 (FRMv2, LSA-504.2)

Product Available since Jan 2017


Rural fires are common events in ecosystems characterized by oscillations between rainy and drought periods, which inevitably lead to high levels of vegetation stress and to the accumulation of fuels during the dry phase. This is particularly true in Mediterranean region, where rainy and mild winters are followed by warm and dry summers. Meteorological factors play a crucial role in the setting and spreading of wildfire and are an important factor in the resulting fire severity. Fire risk indices may be based on single or combined use of meteorological observations, weather forecast model outputs and remote sensing estimations. The latter are particularly useful to identify pre-fire indicators (e.g. signals of vegetation stress), which merged with meteorological parameters may lead to the formulation of indicators of fire risk.


Product Documentation

This operational product is documented in the following documents:

Please see Product Peer-Review publications in References.

The use of LSA SAF products in publications is kindly requested to be duly acknowledged:
FRM was provided by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF; Trigo et al., 2011)

Trigo, I. F., C. C. DaCamara, P. Viterbo, J.-L. Roujean, F. Olesen, C. Barroso, F. Camacho-de Coca, D. Carrer, S. C. Freitas, J. García-Haro, B. Geiger, F. Gellens-Meulenberghs, N. Ghilain, J. Meliá, L. Pessanha, N. Siljamo, and A. Arboleda, 2011: The Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis. Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 2725-2744, doi: 10.1080/01431161003743199

FRM product from the LSA SAF combines information from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models - in this case the operational forecasts from ECMWF - and historical SEVIRI estimates of Fire Raidative Power to derive forecasts of the risk of fire. The rationale is to provide the user community with information on meteorological risk that will allow adopting the adequate measures to mitigate fire damage. The FRM algorithm computes the probability of a fires reaching very high intensities for the following 24h, 48h, ... 120h (Pinto et al., 2018). These indicate prognostic levels of fire danger over Southern Europe and part of Northern Africa.
Algorithm Description
The rationale of the Fire Risk Map – version 2 (FRM-2) product is to assess meteorological fire danger over Mediterranean Europe based on the estimation of the probability of exceedance of predefined thresholds of daily released energy by active fires as derived from satellite observations of fire radiative power (i.e., LSA-502, LSA-550), which are used to quantify fire danger.  Statistical models based on Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are fit to the upper tails of the observed distributions of released energy. GP models use as input estimates of static probability of fire excendance (as a local climatological value) and daily Fire Weather Index (FWI), as covariates of the scale parameter of the GP distributions. Classes of fire danger are finally defined based on a set of break points obtained from the probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Please product ATBD and Pinto et al. (2018) for further details.
Data Characteristics

FRMv2 provides daily forecasts (24-hr up to 120-hr ahead) of the following fieds (original geostationary grid) of:

- The three Fuel Moisture Codes of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS), namely the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC), and Fire Weather Index (FWI);

- The Daily Severity Rating that is an extension of CFFWIS, which is directly obtained from FWI through the following transformation that emphasizes higher FWI values: DSR=0.0272×(FWI)^1.77.

- Information about meteorological fire danger: the probability of exceedance of 2000 GJ of daily energy released by fires at the pixel level (P2000); the anomaly of the probability of exceedance of 2000 GJ of daily energy released by fires (P2000a) with respect to the long-term climatology; classes of fire danger (Risk), ranging between 1 and 5 corresponding to Low, Moderate, High, Very High and Extreme levels of fire danger.

All fields are available over the MSG/SEVIRI disk with a spatial resolution of 3 km x 3 km at the sub-satellite point. However, the Fuel Moisture Codes the Fire Behavior Indices and DSR are not computed over the American continent. Information about meteorological fire danger is only computed over a region covering Mediterranean Europe and part of Northern Africa.

Product Uncertainties

Pinto, M. M., DaCamara, C. C., Trigo, I. F., Trigo, R. M., and Turkman, K. F.: Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat, Nat Haz and Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 515–529. doi:10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018, 2018.